Even the most experienced Magic players get it wrong sometimes. Every set there are a handful of cards that completely outperform their initial evaluations and rankings. Cards that were looked at and dismissed as bad or mediocre, but are now taking over the format and appearing in winning decks. Let's take a look at the biggest expert prediction misses so far in Modern Horizons 3.

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As always, Click Here for the full set or card ratings & pick orders from Modern Horizons 3.

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Methodology:

This list takes the initial ECRs (Expert Consensus Rankings, predicted performance) and compares it to 10 days of 17Lands data (actual performance). We’re looking at the GIH WR% (Games In Hand Win Rate) from 17Lands.com to determine a rank. We then compare that rank to the ECR pick order to come up with a +/-. The cards with the largest positive difference between the ECR and 17L data indicate the biggest overperformers, with the largest negative difference indicating the biggest underperformers.

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NOTE: The 17Lands.com data used in this article is from June 11th - June 20th.

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Biggest Overperformers

These are the cards the experts undervalued during their evaluations.

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#5: Sneaky Snacker | Common | Multicolor (+193) 

ECR Rank: #241, 17L Rank: #48

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#4: Mandibular Kite | Common | White (+201) 

ECR Rank: #243, 17L Rank: #42

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#3: Collective Resistance | Uncommon | Green (+207) 

ECR Rank: #262, 17L Rank: #55

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#2: Scurry of Gremlins | Uncommon | Multicolor (+225) 

ECR Rank: #240, 17L Rank: #15

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#1: Malevolent Rumble | Common | Green (+236) 

ECR Rank: #253, 17L Rank: #17

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Biggest Underperformers

These are the cards the experts overvalued during their evaluations.

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#5: Victimize | Uncommon | Black (-163) 

ECR Rank: #79, 17L Rank: #242

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#4: Herigast, Erupting Nullkite | Mythic | Colorless (-163)

ECR Rank: #17, 17L Rank: #180

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#3: Eladamri, Korvecdal | Mythic | Green (-190)

ECR Rank: #31, 17L Rank: #221

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#2: Imskir Iron Eater | Mythic | Multicolor (-192) 

ECR Rank: #88, 17L Rank: #280

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#1: Disa the Restless | Mythic | Multicolor (-203) 

ECR Rank: #16, 17L Rank: #219

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Wrap Up 

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It’s easy to see a list like this an laugh at the experts who made their predictions, but it just shows how awesome of a game Magic is. Everything is always clear in hindsight, and we never truly know until we play. 

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Modern Horizons 3 is just getting started. Get out there and have fun! 

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Click Here for the full set or card ratings & pick orders from Modern Horizons 3.

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