Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ)
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April 22, 2024
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Justin
It's been ten days since Outlaws of Thunder Junction prerelease. That means ten days of 17Lands data. How did the consensus ratings compare to actual performance?
Image Credit: Magic the Gathering | Artist:
Filip Burburan
Even the most experienced Magic players get it wrong sometimes. Every set there are a handful of cards that completely outperform their initial evaluations and rankings. Cards that were looked at and dismissed as bad or mediocre, but are now taking over the format and appearing in winning decks. Let’s take a look at the Top 10 Overperformers from Outlaws of Thunder Junction, according to the data.
As always, Click Here for the full set or card ratings & pick orders from Outlaws of Thunder Junction.
Methodology:
This list takes the initial ECRs (Expert Consensus Rankings, predicted performance) and compares it to 10 days of 17Lands data (actual performance). We’re looking at the GIH WR% (Games In Hand Win Rate) from 17Lands.com to determine a rank. We then compare that rank to the ECR pick order to come up with a +/-. The cards with the largest positive difference between the ECR and 17L data indicate the biggest overperformers and are what we see in this list.
NOTE: The 17Lands.com data used in this article is from APRIL 12th - APRIL 22nd.
ECR Rank: #328, 17L Rank: #150
Our first card is one of two black cards on this list. It seems like every set the experts underappreciate this type of combat trick – and every set it seems to do a bit better than predicted. I’m not sure when we’ll learn?
The ECR Rank puts this at #328, which basically indicates an unpickable card. Actual performance is quite different though, coming in at #150 based on actual performance (a +178 difference) – a GIH WR% of 55.6%.
When played right, not only can you take out an opposing creature in combat, but you’ll also get the ETB effect of your creature hitting the battlefield when it returns and a Treasure token. That’s just solid value.
ECR Rank: #296, 17L Rank: #115
As you’ll see with more of the cards on this list, some of this might just be Green being such a dominant color in the first couple of weeks in the format that Green cards have been pushed to the top of the 17L WR% (four of these top ten are green cards).
The ECR Rank puts this at #296, while 17L performance putting this at #115 (a +181 difference) – with a GIH WR% of 56.8%.
About the card: we love scalability, and this card scales as the game goes on. Regardless, there are a lot of beefy creatures in Green that you can drop on turns 3 or 4, so for just two mana you can get a potential 4/4 of 5/5 in addition to your other creature. That’s a really scary board state a few turns into the game.
Or, if you’d rather save it and plot it for a later turn, you can really turn the tides by playing this card directly after you play something expensive. I can see how this card is way better than being #296, especially considering Green’s dominance so far.
ECR Rank: #322, 17L Rank: #139
G/W Mount decks have performed admirably in this set, so I’m not surprised to see this card make the list. The ECR Rank puts this at #322, while 17L performance putting this at #139 (a +183 difference) – with a GIH WR% of 56.1%.
This Felidar has become a staple top-end in G/W mounts, but is also serviceable in just about any White deck that needs a top-end. A 4/7 attacker is hard to block, as the seven toughness is no joke. If you have other creatures on the board, saddling this for 2 is a small cost to get +1/+1 counters on your entire board in addition to a decent amount of life.
What’s great is that this isn’t just a one-time effect. If you can keep it alive and keep attacking, it can get out of hand pretty fast. Overall a very solid card that the experts missed in their initial evaluations.
ECR Rank: #313, 17L Rank: #129
This is just a solid two-drop in any Green deck. The ECR Rank puts this at #313, while 17L performance putting this at #129 (a +184 difference) – with a GIH WR% of 56.4%.
This card is simple, but it shines, enabling you to have a board presence while you focus on ramping out your bigger creatures. It’s not going to win games on its own, but as a support to your other Green powerhouses, I can see why this card made it on this list.
It can likely attack on turns three or four onward, so the Defender keyword feels like one you can ignore most of the time. Overall, just a filler card in a good color that helps you even out the curve and have playables in the early game.
ECR Rank: #312, 17L Rank: #126
This reminds me of [INSERT CARD NAME] from WOE, another card that overperformed its rankings. The ECR Rank puts this at #312, while 17L performance putting this at #126 (a +186 difference) – with a GIH WR% of 56.5%.
I forget the exact number of how many Mounts are in this set, but it’s not enough where it affects this card’s performance – over the course of a game, Sterling Keykeeper can be an annoying little pooper for your opponent and often demands removal.
We’re always looking for two-drops that bring value at any point in the game. This card does that, being a solid early body while also allowing you to slow down your opponent’s largest attacking threat later in the game.
ECR Rank: #268, 17L Rank: #78
I had a feeling I’d see this card on this list. The ECR Rank puts this at #268, while 17L performance putting this at #78 (a +90 difference) – with a GIH WR% of 58.0%.
This card encapsulates Green’s dominance so far in the format. Even if you have to pay the full six mana for this creature, it still feels worth it. A 6/5 creature with Reach that draws you a card whenever it’s targeted (which almost always happens), is good value.
But, this card gets truly out of hand if you have a Desert or two (or more) in play, which happens more often than not. Dropping this on the board on Turn 4 just feels dirty.
The #78 best performing card in the set, and it’s at Common. Not bad, Cactarantula. Not bad.
ECR Rank: #318, 17L Rank: #127
Barely beating out Cactarantula is Drover Grizzly, a three-drop 4/2 that enables Green to get off to an oppressive start. The ECR Rank puts this at #318, while 17L performance putting this at #127 (a +191 difference) – with a GIH WR% of 56.5%.
You can Saddle for 1, which is nothing and can be done by pretty much any other creature you have on the board. Later in the game, the Grizzly will likely be able to help you close out games as you get damage through by giving your creatures Trample.
Before we go on, I just want to pause and look back on the other Green cards in this list and put things into perspective.
Imagine filling a deck with Bristleback Sentries as two-drops, Drover Grizzlies as three-drops, a Tumbleweed Rising or two to play on Turn 4, and then curving out with a Cactarantula on Turn 5 or 6…
That’s just brutal, and those are ALL commons! Add in some Rares and removal and I can see why Green is difficult to beat.
ECR Rank: #282, 17L Rank: #77
We’ve entered rarified territory, where the expert predictions are now over 200 points different than actual performance. In this case, Trained Arynx got an ECR Rank of #282, while 17L performance putting this at #77 (a +205 difference) – with a GIH WR% of 58.1% (the highest we've seen so far).
This is the highest-performing card on this list at #77. But why? Well, a two drop 3/1 isn’t amazing, so the ability better be solid (it is). Whenever this creature is saddled and attacks, it gets first strike and allows you to Scry 1. The first strike especially makes it difficult for your opponent to defend against it.
In Mount decks, this shines even brighter and is one of the premier two-drops in that archetype. Regardless, if I’m playing White, I’ll take as many of these as I can get.
ECR Rank: #330, 17L Rank: #119
With just two cards remaining on this list, Lively Dirge takes the runner-up as the biggest overperformer so far in OTJ. It received an ECR Rank of #330, while 17L performance has this at #119 (a +211 difference) – with a GIH WR% of 56.6%.
Experts predicting this as the #330 card in the set is funny in hindsight. The tutor is nice if you have a good target and a way to instantly return it to the battlefield, but even if not, generally just returning potentially two solid creatures to the battlefield for four mana seems very good. We’ve seen some versions of this card recently, but this feels like the best (and most flexible) version so far.
Even if you’re not running dedicated graveyard synergies, this card will tend to do perform admirably.
ECR Rank: #315, 17L Rank: #79
Here it is: the #1 biggest overperformer in Outlaws of Thunder Junction, a whopping 236 places better than what the experts predicted. It received an ECR Rank of #315, while 17L performance has this at #79 (a +236 difference) – with a GIH WR% of 58.0%.
And it's a land. But, I get it. This doesn’t come in tapped so you can always get one generic mana whenever you play it. It’s also a Desert, a land type that is becoming very obviously important in this format. But, it also has incredible synergy with Mount decks, which have performed better than most people expected and are typically G/W, the two strongest colors.
Everything about this card feels like it matters in this format right now, so seeing it here feels like it just makes sense. A worthy overperformer.
Wrap Up
It’s easy to see a list like this an laugh at the experts who made their predictions, but it just shows how awesome of a game Magic is. Everything is always clear in hindsight, and we never truly know until we play.
Outlaws of Thunder Junction is just getting started. Get out there and have fun!
Click Here for the full set or card ratings & pick orders from Outlaws of Thunder Junction.
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