While some cards like Terror of the Peaks are clear bombs, many others are not, and we find ourselves with wildly different ratings coming from the top pros. This article dives deeper into this concept, looking at the cards with the highest standard deviations (Std Dev) in Outlaws of Thunder Junction and why this might be the case.

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As always, Click Here for the full set or card ratings & pick orders from Outlaws of Thunder Junction.

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Standard Deviation (Std Dev): a quantity calculated to indicate the extent of deviation for a group as a whole. This is the official definition, but applied to this exercise, it helps us determine which cards have the most variability amongst the expert ratings.

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#5: Fblthp, Lost on the Range (Std Dev: 2.45, Rating: 5.0)

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Our boy Fblthp is unfortunately the first on the list, coming in with the fifth highest standard deviation amongst experts at 2.45. One expert gave this card a 2/10, with others gave it a 7/10. I can see why this would be hard to evaluate. A 3-mana 1/1 is obviously bad, so the abilities better be good.

Looking at the top card of your library at any time is nice, but isn't super powerful in Limited. Plotting cards from the top of your library, on the other hand, seems very strong. There's a chance it could whiff, so there's high variability here, which may explain the standard deviation.

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All-in-all, a 2/10 seems a bit harsh, while a 7/10 feels a bit closer to what it should be. Averaging out at a 5.0 Rating (#170 Pick Order) might be exactly where this card should sit, but the  potential for this card to overperform that rating is obviously there.

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#4: Jace Reawakened (Std Dev: 2.52, Rating: 5.7)

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Who would have thought that Jace would be so divisive? With a standard deviation of 2.52, it clocks in as our 4th most variable card in the set. One expert gave it an 8/10, with another giving it a 3/10.

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Not being able to play it on turns 1-3 seems trivial and likely won't matter very much, but when you get it in your opening hand and can't play it until turn 4 at the earliest, that will feel bad. Another knock is that it can't protect itself by creating any creatures with its abilities, so you better have an existing board state. Both of the +1 abilities are just mediocre. The +6 is a game-winner, but dropping this on turn 4 and then best case activating the ultimate on turn 8 seems slow. If you can get there, have fun, but if you were able to get there you were likely already winning anyways.

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Overall, this version of Jace seems underwhelming in limited. Maybe the name alone distracted one expert into thinking it deserved an 8/10, but that just seems high to me. Sure, the power potential is there, but a lower rating seems more in line with how Jace will actually perform most games.

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#3: Great Train Heist (Std Dev: 2.87, Rating: 4.8)

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Spoiler alert, this won't be the only modal Spree card on the list. The experts are clearly unsure about this card type in Limited. To be honest, I don't see why. Flexibility seems good, so one expert giving this card a 1/10 is shocking; others seemed to think higher of it at 7/10.

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The bottom ability, paying two to create treasures when your creatures hit face, seems alright. Best case is you'll get two or three treasures if you play it right, basically making the spell pay for itself. The middle ability, paying three for a +1/0 first strike combat trick (applied to all of your creatures), seems decent when applied to all of your creatures but will likely underperform. The top ability is essentially Relentless Assault at Instant speed, which isn't bad but also isn't a massive card in Limited.

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If you can do all three, that's a big swing if you have an existing board. Giving this card a 1/10? There's no way a 1/10 makes sense here - this card has too much versatility. A 7/10 may be a little high, but seems closer to where it should be. Overall, it averaged out to a 4.8 Rating (Pick Order #201) and can likely be bumped up in aggressive, combat-focused decks.

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#2: Ghired, Mirror of the Wilds (Std Dev: 3.00, Rating: 5.0)

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I'm frankly surprised to see Ghired with the second highest standard deviation in the set at 3.00. One expert gave it a 2/10 while another gave it an 8/10.

A 3-color, 3-mana, 3/3 with Haste is on the edge of being bad due to it's mana restrictions, so it's ability better be good. Nontoken creatures being able to create a copy of another token that entered the battlefield this turn has the potential to be incredible, but not in limited. This is a Constructed card (and a fun Commander), but it stops there.

In Limited this will almost always just be a 3-mana 3/3. There just aren't enough good tokens in this set. If you do happen to get all of the pieces set up, great, but that will be few and far between. In LImited this card is much closer to a 0/10 than it is to a 10/10. An average 5.0 Rating (Pick Order #166) feels high for a card with a restrictive casting cost that will typically just be a 3/3.

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#1: Rush of Dread (Std Dev: 3.77, Rating: 5.3)

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Here it is, the most divisive card in Outlaws of Thunder Junction with a standard deviation of a whopping 3.77. One expert gave this card a 0/10, while another gave it an 8/10. That's an entire 8-point spread. Wow.

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These modal Spree cards appear to be tough to evaluate, with many other Spree cards falling just outside of the top five standard deviations in this article. Looking at this card, It's clearly not a 0/10 even when being conservative. Forcing your opponent to sacrifice half of their creatures (they choose) for four mana is meh and can often lack impact, but it's still removal. Forcing your opponent to discard half of their cards for 5 mana is underwhelming but still can be tough for your opponent to recover from, as even if with a hand of only three cards, this forces them to discard two of those three.

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The last ability, being able to pay 5 to cut your opponent's life in half is not bad, but won't always feel amazing in a 20 life point format. I'd almost rather have a big creature to drop with 5 mana to establish a board state than play this.

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If you wanted to get crazy and do all three for 8 mana total (very unlikely to happen or have all three modes matter), I'm not sure it's enough of an impact for 8 mana. Overall, I like the variability, but none of the options actually seem that amazing. A middling card for sure, and seeing it average out to be a 5.3 Rating (Pick Order #159) seems about right.

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Wrap Up

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Two of the top five standard deviations were Spree cards. In general I just don't think most people know how these will end up performing in Limited, so I'm curious to see what happens and how things shake out. Are there other cards that you feel like experts got wrong?

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Click Here for the full set or card ratings & pick orders from Outlaws of Thunder Junction.

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